Has the AAA Games Bubble Burst? (feat. Wolfenstein 2 + Beyond Galaxyland)

[00:00:11] Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to another episode of the Pre-Order Bonus Podcast. I'm one of your hosts, Cameron Warren, and I'm joined, as always, by the Respawn Ranger, Jacob Price. It's November 14th, 2024. Welcome back. We're here to talk about video games. Jake, we've been on a little bit of a hiatus. We guest starred on another show, but we're back to bring... We're back on the content hamster wheel, and we're doing it again. How are you doing?

[00:00:42] Doing okay. I actually wrapped up, finally, I wrapped up Final Fantasy XV.

[00:00:53] Oh my gosh.

[00:00:56] You may have heard of...

[00:00:57] How do you finish games? I don't finish games I don't like. You know what I mean?

[00:01:02] You finish games even if you kind of don't really like them that much. Isn't that not true?

[00:01:09] It's true for the most part. There are several games that I quit out on this year, though, for sure.

[00:01:16] Yeah, so Final Fantasy XV, I originally picked this one up because so many people dunk on this game,

[00:01:23] and a few people out there are like, no, it's actually not that bad.

[00:01:26] And so I had to figure... I had to know for myself. I think I got it on sale for like five bucks or something.

[00:01:32] Like, it was pretty dang cheap. I started it, and I'll be honest, in the first few chapters with this game,

[00:01:39] I really didn't like it. Like, I just...

[00:01:41] Yeah.

[00:01:42] I don't know. It just didn't really click with me.

[00:01:44] At one point it clicked, but also my kids fell in love with this game.

[00:01:49] They like saw me playing it.

[00:01:50] Really?

[00:01:50] Yeah. They loved it.

[00:01:52] Okay.

[00:01:52] They love Prompto, but they loved the just gang. They loved the gang of guys, right?

[00:01:58] So I kept going through it, and the story warmed up to me, and the characters warmed up to me,

[00:02:04] I want to say starting around chapter five.

[00:02:07] And I actually really liked who all the characters were by the time the game ended,

[00:02:11] but I really did not like the combat, dude.

[00:02:18] I think if my kids weren't invested in the game, I may have dropped off because of the combat.

[00:02:24] Yeah.

[00:02:25] It is just so messy and annoying, and the camera is awful.

[00:02:32] The camera's always putting...

[00:02:34] It's like behind a tree or facing directly upward or just like...

[00:02:39] Right.

[00:02:40] It's super frustrating, and so it's super easy to get blindsided by boss attacks.

[00:02:45] Really, really did not like the combat.

[00:02:47] If that game had even Final Fantasy XVI's combat, it would have been leagues better, I think.

[00:02:55] It was a drag.

[00:02:56] I love the concept of that game, like a road trip with the homies.

[00:03:00] Yeah.

[00:03:01] Such a cool concept and idea, but then to your point, I'm very much...

[00:03:06] If I don't like the combat a lot, I'm like an immediate bounce.

[00:03:11] And I think that was kind of my experience with FFXV.

[00:03:15] I really wanted to dive into it, and then I just did a few encounters, and I was like...

[00:03:21] I don't know if I can do this.

[00:03:23] I just don't know.

[00:03:24] Yeah.

[00:03:24] The combat just did not work for me, but the thing is that it's a really...

[00:03:31] I don't know.

[00:03:32] I actually think by looking back on the whole thing, it's a really good adventure story of

[00:03:38] where just like the party, they like know each other, they're friends, and then their bonds

[00:03:44] deepen over time, and there are specific events and plot events that are moments for like,

[00:03:51] I don't know, expedited maturity for any given party member according to whatever the event

[00:03:55] was.

[00:03:56] And so I really liked that.

[00:03:59] Like instead of just kind of like, hey, we're the ragtag team, and then you just kind of stick

[00:04:06] with each other throughout the entire game.

[00:04:08] Just super well done.

[00:04:10] I don't know.

[00:04:10] Really like that.

[00:04:11] But yeah, it's in the past now.

[00:04:14] I did do, for people who are listening and have played and enjoyed Final Fantasy XV, I did

[00:04:21] the bonus episodes.

[00:04:22] So this is like little DLC packs.

[00:04:25] They're like one to two hours long, and they focus on the other party members, not the

[00:04:28] protagonist Noctis.

[00:04:30] Oh, yeah.

[00:04:31] And I actually did those while I was playing the game, because there's a moment where each

[00:04:35] of those party members, they like leave the party.

[00:04:37] They kind of go do their thing.

[00:04:40] And so when that happened, or whenever they returned back to the party, I immediately went

[00:04:44] and I played those special episodes, which I liked a lot, because you get just more information

[00:04:50] kind of of why and how things are the way that they are.

[00:04:53] So it's like, I actually really love the formatting of the game, the way it was designed, the way

[00:04:59] that you have like special episodes.

[00:05:02] I liked the story by the time I got to the end of it.

[00:05:06] I think the villain Arden is not great for like the first three quarters of the game.

[00:05:13] Right.

[00:05:14] But then I really liked him at the end.

[00:05:16] So it's a game that I'm just really conflicted on.

[00:05:18] I don't need to talk about it much more than that.

[00:05:20] But like, I don't know.

[00:05:22] I say if you see it for five bucks, sure, pick it up and try your hand at it.

[00:05:26] Maybe you'll be one that really like it.

[00:05:29] I think it's regularly five bucks on Steam, like the complete edition or whatever.

[00:05:34] Yeah.

[00:05:35] Yeah.

[00:05:36] No, I bounced off that one super quick.

[00:05:39] I'm actually, it's weird because I'm playing metaphor, ReFantasio, and I'm feeling like

[00:05:49] for some reason, I think I'm thinking about my time with FF15 as I'm playing.

[00:05:54] Oh, yeah.

[00:05:55] It's really bizarre.

[00:05:56] I don't know if it's like the world map or like something about like the prince or something.

[00:06:02] Anyway, I've been playing.

[00:06:03] That's what I've been playing.

[00:06:05] I've been playing metaphor, ReFantasio.

[00:06:07] I've been playing Dragon Age.

[00:06:10] Oh, yes.

[00:06:12] Nice.

[00:06:15] Two very interesting games to play at the same time.

[00:06:21] Because Dragon Age Veil Guard, which I haven't started yet, but I plan on starting soon.

[00:06:27] I mean, it's action RPG combat, right?

[00:06:30] It's an action.

[00:06:31] It's an action game.

[00:06:32] It's an action RPG.

[00:06:34] Yeah.

[00:06:38] It goes way hard into the action of the action RPG versus like Inquisition, which was still

[00:06:45] kind of a CRPG a little bit.

[00:06:47] Okay.

[00:06:47] It kind of did both.

[00:06:50] And they've completely gone away from that.

[00:06:52] And it's full action now.

[00:06:55] And yeah, I mean, the thing is like, I think it's, and I'm only five, six hours in, I want

[00:07:02] to say.

[00:07:03] So, and I actually went back and I started a new character and I'm kind of mad about it

[00:07:09] because I started off as a warrior.

[00:07:11] And then I was like, you know what?

[00:07:12] I kind of want to try combat with the other classes.

[00:07:14] And I actually liked the combat way more with the other classes.

[00:07:17] And I'm like kind of mad because I'd have to just, I think I'm going to restart, but

[00:07:24] it means I got to go back through like five hours of story content, which is a little bit

[00:07:28] disappointing.

[00:07:29] Okay.

[00:07:29] So what would you recommend for me then?

[00:07:31] I'm about to start this.

[00:07:32] So word of advice.

[00:07:33] Yeah.

[00:07:33] I, I would go mage or ranger, whatever they call the rogue class, like the middle class.

[00:07:41] Don't go warrior.

[00:07:42] I found warrior like boring.

[00:07:44] Okay.

[00:07:45] To be honest.

[00:07:45] That's good to know because, uh, you know, like statistically a lot of people just choose

[00:07:51] like boring male protagonist with big sword in fantasy games.

[00:07:55] And that's me like nine out of 10 times.

[00:07:59] So this is good.

[00:08:00] I'll, I'll do something else.

[00:08:01] So that, I mean, that was me is like, I always pick a ranger or a rogue type for my first class.

[00:08:07] That's what I did in BG three.

[00:08:08] I was like a full bore thief.

[00:08:10] Okay.

[00:08:10] Which is actually probably still my favorite class.

[00:08:13] Ironically.

[00:08:14] I played the other ones.

[00:08:15] Um, and when I played inquisition, I also played a thief, like a rogue thing.

[00:08:21] So I was like, you know what?

[00:08:22] I want to change it up.

[00:08:23] Let's just be like a basic warrior.

[00:08:25] And then I was bored.

[00:08:26] And now I might have to replay beginning sections of the game, which is a little disappointing,

[00:08:30] but that is disappointing.

[00:08:32] Um, no, but I'm, I mean, I'm excited to continue to play more.

[00:08:37] There's something about it that I, there's something a little off with it, but I've heard that the first,

[00:08:45] unfortunately, 10 hours kind of feel.

[00:08:49] Yeah.

[00:08:50] I know you're Jake's.

[00:08:51] If you can't see Jake's face right now, it was like a blow.

[00:08:54] Uh, I've heard that the first 10 hours are basically like kind of opening up the game.

[00:09:00] And then when you hit that, like it, it opens up and it makes a big difference.

[00:09:04] And I like it enough that I think I'm going to give it my best, the old college try and like try and get to that,

[00:09:12] like that, you know, 10, 11, 12 hour mark, and then kind of see how I feel.

[00:09:16] Um, metaphor.

[00:09:18] I've also been playing that game is just like, yeah, man.

[00:09:24] I, I'm like seven hours into that game as well.

[00:09:31] Really good combat.

[00:09:32] Right.

[00:09:33] Yeah.

[00:09:33] Massive amounts of text, just, just unending amounts of text, super bizarre, just weird off the wall world.

[00:09:43] That's actually really interesting and like really fascinating world building, which is kind of the thing that's keeping me going.

[00:09:49] And then the combat is actually like really well done, like turn-based kind of strategic combat with different, um, we,

[00:09:58] and we, we have an episode on like the prologue cause Jake and I both completed the prologue.

[00:10:02] Uh, that you can check out, but that's kind of what I've been playing.

[00:10:05] Uh, and then also barely dabbled in, uh, fact, the factorio expansion, the space age.

[00:10:11] Yeah.

[00:10:12] I've actually, which.

[00:10:13] I was going to say, I pulled up a few streams of that cause I'm always so sickly curious, uh, about those types of games.

[00:10:22] Yeah.

[00:10:23] I mean, it's, it's, it's a really cool game, but it's definitely not one that you can play when you, I just want to like lay back on the couch and like turn a game on.

[00:10:34] Yeah.

[00:10:35] You have to be like ready to, to like work.

[00:10:38] And that's the problem with that game is it's, it kind of feels like work because you have to, if you really want to play it right, it's about having an efficient automation and building those like pipelines and stuff.

[00:10:52] And so exercise is that part of your brain.

[00:10:55] In fact, if you've got kids that are like getting older and getting into PC games, this is the game that I would be like, Hey, you can play whatever you want, but first you got to play a half an hour effect.

[00:11:05] Like it's seriously so good at teaching, you know, automation logistics, like how to think like a, you know, be like a systems thinker.

[00:11:15] And it, the detail is just insane, but they go, uh, like the lengths that they go.

[00:11:21] And then this new expansion just adds massive amounts of additional things.

[00:11:26] Um, yeah, that's cool.

[00:11:29] Dang.

[00:11:29] Well, okay.

[00:11:30] The I'm playing as always a billion games, but I started tonight, this game, everybody, if you've been gaming for a long time, you've got that really weird, uh, PS2 JRPG.

[00:11:44] That is just probably actually objectively bad, but your nostalgia just, you loved it so much as a kid.

[00:11:52] Right.

[00:11:53] Um, and so I, I actually found that game of mine for me.

[00:11:57] This is a really deep cut.

[00:11:58] Please let me know if you've heard of this game before.

[00:12:01] Okage the shadow King.

[00:12:03] This is a game that I played as a, Oh, I played this as a kid and I never beat it.

[00:12:08] And then I actually discovered it on the PlayStation store and it was like 10 bucks.

[00:12:13] So I bought it and I started it again, uh, again, being like 20 plus years later.

[00:12:19] Um, and this game is actually hilarious.

[00:12:22] It is like incredibly funny and the humor holds up extremely well.

[00:12:28] Um, we'll see about the gameplay.

[00:12:31] Um, I mean, I've done, I played like maybe an hour of it or so and it's, you know, pretty straightforward turn-based combat, but the game is hilarious.

[00:12:39] It is super bonkers.

[00:12:40] Like think kind of Tim Burton bonkers.

[00:12:43] Um, and, uh, but my biggest issue with it is actually not the game itself.

[00:12:48] I'm playing a PS2 game on PS5 and, um, whatever they're using to like emulate or whatever it is,

[00:12:58] it creates all sorts of like rendering issues.

[00:13:01] So things will be like, uh, transparent suddenly or colors will be off.

[00:13:06] And it's a, it's a pretty big disappointment, um, to have to deal with that, which is, which

[00:13:10] is really annoying.

[00:13:11] But yeah, I've been playing that.

[00:13:13] And then we're talking about this tonight, but I've been playing a ton of Wolfenstein to,

[00:13:17] uh, the new Colossus, which frankly might be one of my favorite FPS games at this point.

[00:13:23] So we're going to talk about it in more detail, but I am going to tease you with that little

[00:13:27] nugget right now.

[00:13:30] Dude, new Colossus.

[00:13:32] That's the perfect game to play in light of a recent events, which shall not be mentioned.

[00:13:39] Um, yeah, no, I think, I think that's awesome.

[00:13:43] Jake, you're always playing a million games, finishing a massive amount of games.

[00:13:46] I actually booted up to, what did I boot up on the switch?

[00:13:52] Oh yeah.

[00:13:52] I picked up Mario party jamboree.

[00:13:54] Oh, okay.

[00:13:55] Uh, my kids have been having a blast with that.

[00:13:57] Uh, I hate Mario party personally.

[00:13:59] I can't stand it, but my kids love it.

[00:14:02] Do you hate it?

[00:14:03] They love it.

[00:14:04] Because of the, the random stars to get awarded or do you just not like doing mini games over

[00:14:10] and over again?

[00:14:11] Yeah.

[00:14:11] So I think it's a combination of, I just don't really like the gameplay, but I also think

[00:14:18] the game is, it's a competitive game that's randomized.

[00:14:22] Right.

[00:14:23] And so you basically like win the lottery.

[00:14:24] So it's basically like gambling.

[00:14:27] So even if you're actually playing, your skill doesn't actually matter because you could

[00:14:33] end up just actually just winning totally based off random, like a random role, like

[00:14:38] art, art, RNG.

[00:14:39] Right.

[00:14:40] Yeah.

[00:14:40] Which makes me hate it.

[00:14:45] Which is why when you play with your kids, it's not a big deal.

[00:14:48] Cause it's like, Oh, whatever.

[00:14:50] I just, this is like a throwaway.

[00:14:52] If you play with other people and you're like, I actually want to win and I'm trying to win,

[00:14:56] but maybe I'm missing the point of it and I should just have fun.

[00:15:00] I don't know.

[00:15:00] You know what I mean?

[00:15:01] Yeah.

[00:15:01] I know what you mean, but I also feel like I saw somewhere, maybe I'm making this up.

[00:15:05] Maybe this was in a dream.

[00:15:09] I felt like you could turn off random stars as a setting in Jamboree.

[00:15:15] Maybe you can.

[00:15:17] Maybe I should look into that and I would like it more.

[00:15:20] Maybe I dreamed it.

[00:15:21] I don't know.

[00:15:23] Hold on.

[00:15:24] Hold on.

[00:15:25] Hold on.

[00:15:27] Yeah.

[00:15:28] There's something called party rules or pro rules.

[00:15:33] So I don't know.

[00:15:36] Cause that, um, I agree when you were like playing for, I don't know, all the marbles

[00:15:43] against your friends, whatever it was.

[00:15:44] And it got really competitive.

[00:15:46] And then suddenly Joe Schmo gets three stars for just landing on the most amount of red squares

[00:15:50] while upside down or whatever.

[00:15:52] You're like, great.

[00:15:54] Next time I'll incorporate that into my strategy.

[00:15:58] So I also booted up because I, uh, I also booted up.

[00:16:05] Um, oh my gosh.

[00:16:08] Earthbound.

[00:16:09] Oh, classic earthbound on switch, man.

[00:16:13] That was, I forgot that game has not aged particularly.

[00:16:20] I forgot that it's literally like less animation than like Pokemon red, which that might make

[00:16:33] it hard for me to, um, to keep going on that one.

[00:16:35] For some reason, uh, some, some game like nostalgic games, some nostalgic games, like just don't

[00:16:43] hit.

[00:16:43] I think, I think I need like the 3d era, like anything pre 3d era, even though I played those

[00:16:50] games as like a really little kid, anything pre 3d era is hard for me to go back to.

[00:16:55] And I don't know if that's just cause like, I don't know.

[00:16:57] I don't know why.

[00:16:58] Like it does.

[00:16:58] It's not like enough nostalgia.

[00:17:00] That's funny.

[00:17:01] Speaking of which I was just gonna say real quick for me, I think like the pixel art holds

[00:17:06] up incredibly well.

[00:17:08] Um, yeah, I can't even remember how he felt about the animations.

[00:17:11] It very much has the old school, you know, SNES, um, game design, which is why playing it

[00:17:19] on Nintendo switch online with save States, I think is incredible.

[00:17:23] Oh my gosh.

[00:17:24] Because the save points are so few and far between and the inventory system really sucks.

[00:17:29] But, um, I don't know.

[00:17:31] Yeah.

[00:17:32] I loved it.

[00:17:33] Uh, no, what I was going to say is, uh, I played and I mentioned this in the discord,

[00:17:37] but I, we went down to St. George's place in Southern Utah this last weekend.

[00:17:43] And we stayed at a little, like little, uh, townhouse and they had in there a retro arcade

[00:17:52] machine.

[00:17:52] Yeah.

[00:17:54] Which was like one of the, have you seen one of these Jake?

[00:17:57] It's like a, it's like, it looks like an arcade, but it's actually a retro box with a whole

[00:18:03] bunch of games from like a million systems.

[00:18:05] Right.

[00:18:07] NES SNES classic arcade games, uh, Sega, Sega Genesis, Dreamcast, PlayStation one, like a billion

[00:18:17] games.

[00:18:18] Oh, dang.

[00:18:18] Okay.

[00:18:19] Actually super cool.

[00:18:20] And I just, for fun, I booted up the old SNES Aladdin game.

[00:18:25] Oh no, man.

[00:18:27] Like the classic one with like the magic carpet thing that you could never beat as a kid.

[00:18:31] Did you ever play that?

[00:18:32] I have some memories playing that at a friend's house and really getting frustrated.

[00:18:38] Yes.

[00:18:38] Yeah.

[00:18:39] I think every kid, if you played that game, you have a memory of like wanting to throw

[00:18:43] your controller at the screen because there's anyway.

[00:18:47] I just booted that for fun.

[00:18:48] Unfortunately, the controls were not working correctly.

[00:18:52] So, oh, dang.

[00:18:53] I did not get to enjoy it very much.

[00:18:55] Yeah.

[00:18:56] Dang.

[00:18:59] Aladdin.

[00:18:59] Dude, what did, what did it?

[00:19:01] I know we just talked about this.

[00:19:02] I feel like on a recent episode, but the Aladdin and Lion King games, man, just cruel.

[00:19:07] You know, the age where they're transitioning from arcade style game design to like at home console

[00:19:14] gaming.

[00:19:15] That Lion King draft platforming level is the stuff.

[00:19:20] Like it's over.

[00:19:22] Yeah.

[00:19:23] No, it's like that's, that's harder than that's harder than Melania.

[00:19:29] It's harder because you can actually beat Melania.

[00:19:33] That's right.

[00:19:35] Well, with enough about that, Jake, ladies and gentlemen, we've got a kind of a weird episode.

[00:19:41] I think Jake and I are both playing a lot of games, a lot of different games.

[00:19:45] We're kind of in between things.

[00:19:46] We're getting to start like getting into the holiday season.

[00:19:49] I was out of town.

[00:19:51] We guest hosted on a different podcast.

[00:19:52] We're both crazy busy kids, like the whole thing.

[00:19:56] So we're ending up, we're doing sort of a like jambalaya episode today.

[00:20:03] But luckily we had this article come out.

[00:20:06] And so what we want to do is kind of build this episode off talking about this article.

[00:20:10] This is something we've kind of talked about before, but it was interesting to see IGN post about it.

[00:20:15] And then as we talk about it, we will talk about the context.

[00:20:20] We'll try and talk about it in the context of two games that one I have played in the past many times.

[00:20:26] One Jake's currently playing.

[00:20:27] And then another that we're both currently playing, which is Wolf of the Sign 2 and Beyond Galaxy Land.

[00:20:32] So that's...

[00:20:33] And the article...

[00:20:34] No, I was going to say that's just a general rundown of what we're going to do.

[00:20:37] So use those kind of as case studies because they're games that we've been playing.

[00:20:42] And also, if you are a longtime listener of the podcast, you know that we do a predictions episode at the beginning of every year.

[00:20:49] And whoever kind of loses a bet that we make with those predictions has to play a game that the other person chooses.

[00:20:56] Well, I lost last year.

[00:20:57] And so I had to play Wolfenstein and Wolfenstein 2.

[00:21:01] And I'm finally getting to my finishing, honestly, with integrity.

[00:21:09] My losing the bet by finishing Wolfenstein 2.

[00:21:14] And you guys, listen up.

[00:21:16] We're already in mid-November.

[00:21:18] So we are pretty close to our Game Awards prediction episode, our Game of the Year episode, all those fun end-of-year episodes.

[00:21:29] Actually, this is like probably, honestly, the most fun that I have on the podcast is around this time of year.

[00:21:36] Like doing the Game of the Year, doing like the predictions.

[00:21:39] These are the most fun episodes.

[00:21:40] So like stay tuned for those.

[00:21:41] We're going to...

[00:21:42] It's prime time, man.

[00:21:44] It's absolutely prime time.

[00:21:46] So with that, let's dive into this article.

[00:21:48] So IGN put out an article, I think today...

[00:21:52] Yep, today.

[00:21:53] This morning.

[00:21:54] And the title of the article, this is IGN probably the biggest...

[00:21:58] Not even probably.

[00:22:00] Like the biggest gaming news and media outlet out there.

[00:22:04] And it's titled, The Blockbuster Games Bubble Has Burst.

[00:22:11] I like this.

[00:22:12] Jake, give me your initial thoughts.

[00:22:13] I like this headline because it's calling it.

[00:22:16] I think this is something, especially in the last year or so, people on social media have been talking about this.

[00:22:21] Not necessarily like the death of the video games industry.

[00:22:24] The video games industry is not going to die.

[00:22:26] It makes way too much money.

[00:22:27] But this like, okay, when will the currently unsustainable model of AAA studios and AAA games...

[00:22:36] When is that finally going to become too much?

[00:22:38] And so we've been talking about a building towards this moment.

[00:22:41] And IGN is like, okay, let's call it.

[00:22:44] Let's say that this is the time.

[00:22:46] And so obviously good headline.

[00:22:48] They're calling it.

[00:22:48] They're calling it.

[00:22:49] Like they're saying the bubble has burst.

[00:22:53] And what do you think?

[00:22:55] Go ahead.

[00:22:55] I'll just, I'll quickly chime in.

[00:22:57] I think you and I have talked about it like the bubble was going to burst.

[00:23:00] Yeah.

[00:23:01] Like that we were headed to that.

[00:23:03] But it was interesting to see this article pop up this morning and IGN say the bubble has burst.

[00:23:11] Yeah.

[00:23:15] It's, I don't know.

[00:23:16] I'm kind of compelled to agree, actually.

[00:23:18] I think the article is relatively convincing.

[00:23:20] And just to give a quick shout out, who is the person at IGN that does this?

[00:23:24] This is Sab Astley writes this.

[00:23:27] I'm compelled to agree.

[00:23:29] What about you, Cameron?

[00:23:30] Yeah.

[00:23:31] So let me give just a couple points from the article that I've laid out here.

[00:23:35] So basically, this is a part.

[00:23:42] This is an opinion piece, essentially, that gives some pieces of data that indicate that the AAA games, they call it the AAA games bubble.

[00:23:53] They call, first of all, like the development and the creation of AAA games has been a bubble.

[00:23:57] And it is burst.

[00:23:59] I don't know if the argument is, we'll get into this.

[00:24:04] So I think what we need to come out of this, Jake, deciding like, is Sab's argument strong enough?

[00:24:13] Like, you're going to grade this like a college paper.

[00:24:16] Nice.

[00:24:17] Okay.

[00:24:18] But I'll give you some points from the article that he talks about.

[00:24:21] So the games industry, turmoil, it's in turmoil, right?

[00:24:26] We've got studio closures, canceled projects, mass layoffs, over 23,000 jobs lost in two years, including 6,000 in January of this year alone.

[00:24:35] AAA game budgets.

[00:24:36] Jake and I have talked about this ad nauseum.

[00:24:39] Uh, Sab's claiming five years ago, uh, they cost 50 to 150 million.

[00:24:46] And today a minimum budget for a AAA game is 200 million with some games costing upwards of a billion when you include marketing costs.

[00:24:58] And I think he referenced, see, this is where like, he kind of, he kind of, and we'll get into the argument here.

[00:25:05] He kind of cherry pick some, some things because I think there's really only like one or two games that get anywhere close to that, like billion mark, which is going to be stuff like a GTA.

[00:25:17] Um, so that doesn't really count, but, um, yeah.

[00:25:21] So he, he brings up some games that were in development for many, many, many years and ended up getting canceled.

[00:25:27] He references two games that I think most people haven't even heard of.

[00:25:31] One is a game from Sega called hyenas.

[00:25:33] Right.

[00:25:34] And then the blizzard, the one game that people probably have heard of is the blizzard survival game, which got shelved after the, uh, the Microsoft acquisition.

[00:25:45] And then ultimately he says like, look, there's a risk aversion publishers.

[00:25:49] They prefer safe bets with established IPs, or they're trying to hit, they're trying to go live service.

[00:25:55] And even if you have IP that has worked in the past, like classic franchises, they're getting ignored.

[00:26:01] If they can't fit this new mold that either become a live service game or become like a massive franchise in, uh, in 2024.

[00:26:13] And then finally, like the bigger, the, the bigger problem of established giants in the space, like Fortnite and GTA online, basically leaving no room.

[00:26:25] Um, and so live service games, like essentially being a almost impossible endeavor because those games have eaten up so much market share that you just can't break through.

[00:26:36] You can't break through because no one's going to stop playing their Fortnite or their GTA online to go play whatever your life service offering is.

[00:26:46] Yeah. Um, I kind of want to take an approach to this topic. Um, recalling something that my favorite and probably most influential history professor said when I was an undergraduate student and my history professor said, this was like the first day of class.

[00:27:02] He was like, no historian will ever say that they just got fed up one day and decided to start a revolution.

[00:27:11] He said, a good historian will find the straw that broke the camel's back.

[00:27:17] We'll find the exact moment and be able to explain, substantiate with evidence why like a revolution has occurred and exactly why it has happened.

[00:27:28] And so this is something that I think about quite a lot.

[00:27:30] Like if we're going to look at something like this moment and say like, okay, the games, AAA industry, that bubble has burst.

[00:27:37] Then it's not just because, well, today the bubble burst, but what was the new action that caused that specific reaction to occur?

[00:27:47] And so I think this will be a good topic because we can kind of analyze how that happens.

[00:27:52] Um, but I think to your point, I think about this with live service games.

[00:27:55] The reason why Fortnite has been so successful is because they have been able to thread a needle.

[00:28:02] Um, in part, they're so successful because they were one of the first to get really big, right?

[00:28:07] Hot on the heels of PUBG.

[00:28:09] You have Fortnite coming in and, um, they take up this huge brand new market share and in live service.

[00:28:16] But they're also their leadership as much as you like, um, what's his name?

[00:28:20] Tim Sweeney or not has been able to thread the needle so that he is not the reason that Fortnite has totally imploded.

[00:28:27] And the reason why I bring that up is looking at social media and what's happening here.

[00:28:33] Elon Musk has kind of hit the self-destruct button on Twitter or now X, right?

[00:28:39] And because that has happened, new social media sites are sort of filling in this void, right?

[00:28:45] And so if we were to trace like why a ton of people are migrating away from Twitter X to other social media, like companies or services or products, it's because of specific decisions about that Twitter or X leadership has made regarding its product that has driven people away.

[00:29:03] Right?

[00:29:04] So this, this to me is an example of like, okay, policy decisions are the reason why there's a switch in social media.

[00:29:10] It's not all that Twitter users got fed up one day and then left the site, right?

[00:29:15] So with, with AAA games, I don't know.

[00:29:18] What is that specific moment?

[00:29:20] Why 2024?

[00:29:22] Um, I don't know.

[00:29:24] I don't think Sam Astley says this, but kind of my own personal interpretation of this is like,

[00:29:32] because I am struggling to think of a AAA game from 2024 that has been wildly profitable.

[00:29:43] We've had reports about Final Fantasy VII Rebirth, not meeting sales expectations, right?

[00:29:50] Um, yeah.

[00:29:50] And I, I think it's savvy him or, uh, her or,

[00:29:57] Oh my gosh.

[00:29:58] We're probably misgendering this poor soul this whole time.

[00:30:01] I'm sorry.

[00:30:01] We apologize if, if that's the case.

[00:30:03] Okay.

[00:30:04] Well, we'll say them, Sam.

[00:30:06] They, them to be, to be safe.

[00:30:08] Um, but this is kind of what I'm getting at here is like, which massive AAA game that

[00:30:14] has come out in 2024 has been a safe financial, uh, profit making game?

[00:30:24] Which one are people are, are the top dogs, the executives, the company like supremely impressed

[00:30:30] with?

[00:30:31] Um, it's actually a really good question.

[00:30:36] Uh, I mean, black ops six.

[00:30:38] Okay.

[00:30:39] We've got one.

[00:30:40] So maybe the bubble has a shadow of shadow of the air tree expansion for Elden Ring.

[00:30:44] Okay.

[00:30:47] College football 25.

[00:30:48] Oh, that was a smash it.

[00:30:50] Yeah.

[00:30:51] Helldivers too, but I don't know if that counts as AAA.

[00:30:54] Maybe it does.

[00:30:54] I, I hesitate to.

[00:30:58] Dragon's dogma too.

[00:31:00] I think did pretty, it, it didn't set the world on fire, but it did pretty well.

[00:31:04] And then black myth.

[00:31:05] Wukong was a massive biggest, biggest, biggest single player game ever.

[00:31:09] Okay.

[00:31:09] So black myth Wukong, I think would be the type of the game maybe that I'm looking for.

[00:31:14] Right.

[00:31:14] Yeah.

[00:31:15] Um, so, okay.

[00:31:17] Maybe I'm wrong.

[00:31:18] Maybe the bubble hasn't burst quite yet.

[00:31:20] Uh, but then I don't know.

[00:31:22] You ask the opposite question, which massive, massive profile AAA games have not made their

[00:31:29] investors happy.

[00:31:30] And it's a lot.

[00:31:31] Right.

[00:31:32] Yeah.

[00:31:33] I mean, pretty much every game, even if it was like pretty successful, the publisher came

[00:31:39] around and was like, we're disappointed.

[00:31:41] This isn't, I think star star Wars outlaws being like the biggest one that I think did

[00:31:45] like pretty well, but it wasn't, it didn't set the world on fire.

[00:31:49] And so it's not enough.

[00:31:49] Right.

[00:31:50] And so I don't think that what I'm asking is like the perfect measuring stick for success

[00:31:55] even.

[00:31:55] Um, but I think it's just something to consider, right?

[00:31:58] Like Cameron and I are not on the side of the shareholders and investors who are asking

[00:32:02] for like increasingly, um, large profit margins.

[00:32:06] Um, but the, the reality of the thing is that they're the ones calling the shots when it comes

[00:32:11] to funding these things, whether they be publishing them or just the, the head people

[00:32:16] in charge of development of these, some of these games.

[00:32:18] Um, so I don't know.

[00:32:21] That's a problem, right?

[00:32:23] Right.

[00:32:23] Especially if costs are ballooning like they are.

[00:32:27] Yeah.

[00:32:27] And we, we talked about this on our episode, like analyzing the games industry.

[00:32:31] You can go back and you can listen to that.

[00:32:32] I need to find, I'll find the title of that episode.

[00:32:34] I can't remember off the top of my head.

[00:32:36] Um, but we kind of broke down an article from like a gaming venture capitalist that gave

[00:32:44] this like very deep cut way deeper than, than this article from like a financial perspective

[00:32:51] that was very business heavy and like business sided, which I think was really interesting.

[00:32:57] Uh, we talked a lot about like the fact that Spider-Man two costs 250 million, 350 million.

[00:33:03] Yeah.

[00:33:04] I think when you added the marketing and ended up doing like just as well or worse than Spider-Man

[00:33:09] one, I think I want to say, um, yeah, I mean, I don't, I, I don't think, um, Sav is wrong

[00:33:19] at all.

[00:33:20] And the fact in the reference of like triple A game development budgets, we know for sure

[00:33:25] and clearly that triple A budgets are out of absolutely out of control.

[00:33:30] Yeah.

[00:33:31] And there doesn't seem to be a solution for that because people, people keep bringing up

[00:33:37] like, well, just like reuse assets and like, and you know, make a game and then like try

[00:33:46] and make a different game, but it seems like it's still taking five years to make a game.

[00:33:54] Even when you already have the other game before it's both Spider-Man two of the biggest,

[00:33:59] biggest examples being God of war Ragnarok and Spider-Man two, both of which had their

[00:34:05] engine and kind of a lot of animations and all that stuff done previously, but still took

[00:34:10] what five years, both of them.

[00:34:12] I want to say, I don't want to say it was that long for Spider-Man because miles Morales

[00:34:18] did come out between one and two.

[00:34:21] That's fair.

[00:34:22] So they did have some content.

[00:34:23] But, um, I think Spider-Man one game came out in 2018.

[00:34:28] Yep.

[00:34:29] And then Spider-Man two last year.

[00:34:32] No.

[00:34:35] Spider-Man two came out in 2023.

[00:34:40] Okay.

[00:34:40] That was last year.

[00:34:42] That was last year.

[00:34:43] And I think similar timeline for Ragnarok.

[00:34:47] I think the one AAA game that bucked this trend and that actually pulled off what I just

[00:34:52] said, and there's really only one that I can think of.

[00:34:57] There's probably more, but this is, but the biggest it's Jedi survivor.

[00:35:00] They did it in about three years.

[00:35:03] Now I'm starting to wonder, listening to this, uh, listening to you say what you're

[00:35:08] saying is, is there a difference?

[00:35:11] And kind of looking at this, this sab article as well too.

[00:35:14] Is there a difference though, between, um, what's happening from like Japanese studios

[00:35:20] versus Western studios?

[00:35:21] Because I feel like Capcom, Sega and, uh, R RGG, right.

[00:35:28] Um, they seem to be doing okay.

[00:35:31] They seem to be putting out games at a much higher speed.

[00:35:34] Right.

[00:35:36] Um, I know that the director of the like a dragon series even came out and said like, listen,

[00:35:40] the reason why we turn around games so quickly is because, uh, we don't try starting from

[00:35:46] scratch with every single game.

[00:35:51] I mean, fair enough.

[00:35:52] I mean, fair enough.

[00:35:53] Right.

[00:35:54] I mean, but, but square, square Enix final fantasy seven rebirth was their biggest title

[00:35:59] of the year.

[00:35:59] It was a financial disappointment.

[00:36:01] And I quote from the CEO.

[00:36:03] And so that's an exception to that.

[00:36:06] Right.

[00:36:06] So true.

[00:36:07] I think what I'm getting at, I think what I'm getting at is I think that the exclamation

[00:36:13] that the bubble has burst is probably a bit of an overreach.

[00:36:20] I think it's a little bit more nuanced than that.

[00:36:22] I don't know if it's a burst yet.

[00:36:25] If it's burst, if it's burst, then that means that the decisions being made today are going

[00:36:33] to lead to the decisions being made right now are changing dramatically to lead to like

[00:36:40] a different future in five years from now in the AAA space, which I don't know that they

[00:36:45] are.

[00:36:45] I mean, I, I don't know.

[00:36:47] I kind of, maybe I think maybe with Xbox they are.

[00:36:49] I mean, with, with Xbox.

[00:36:52] Yeah, that's okay.

[00:36:53] I'll, I'll give you that one.

[00:36:54] Xbox is definitely taking that approach.

[00:36:56] I think you're, I think they've scaled down the size of the games that they're putting

[00:37:00] out to try to increase a cadence.

[00:37:02] And for as much crap as we give Xbox and they deserve for always promising a billion games

[00:37:09] and not delivering on it.

[00:37:10] 2024, they've had a pretty good release of games and they're about to write this, this

[00:37:15] fall.

[00:37:15] I think we got a few, we got Indiana Jones and we got even a Microsoft flight sim 2024,

[00:37:21] right?

[00:37:21] Those are coming out.

[00:37:23] And stalker too.

[00:37:24] And stalker too, which Xbox exclusive.

[00:37:27] Anyway, whatever.

[00:37:29] So I think Xbox is catching up and if they do deliver on their 2025 slate, which is what

[00:37:35] South of Midnight, Clockwork Revolution.

[00:37:39] And there was some other avowed is in there.

[00:37:41] And I want to say another big one in there.

[00:37:44] Trayble.

[00:37:44] Oh my gosh.

[00:37:45] I can't believe I forgot that.

[00:37:47] And I still don't think it's coming out next year.

[00:37:50] I'll be honest, even though the reveal that they showed in the summer was super cool looking.

[00:37:55] So, I mean, maybe Xbox has already made that adjustment.

[00:37:58] I think you're right.

[00:38:00] The bubble, the AAA bubble is not one bubble, right?

[00:38:04] I mean, it's a multitude of bubbles because you have these huge AAA companies that operate

[00:38:08] in very different ways.

[00:38:10] Like the Nintendo AAA bubble.

[00:38:13] Has the bubble even swelled to the point of bursting?

[00:38:16] They seem to be doing okay.

[00:38:17] No, they're doing just fine.

[00:38:19] I mean, it really like, like PlayStation, I feel like we're getting a pretty big sense

[00:38:24] of the struggle here with games taking a long time to come out.

[00:38:28] Thank goodness we heard about Ghost of Yotei coming, or Yotai.

[00:38:34] But like Wolverine, we just heard that the creative directors left to take on Perfect Dark.

[00:38:39] And they were replaced by the Ratchet and Clank directors.

[00:38:45] Which, Perfect Dark, hell of a showcase.

[00:38:50] Oh, dude.

[00:38:51] That game.

[00:38:52] I really turned around on that one there.

[00:38:54] That one, that's the most I've been impressed by like presentation like that probably in years.

[00:39:01] But anyway, that's besides the point.

[00:39:04] So I wonder if what we're actually witnessing is third party AAA because they don't have insane

[00:39:12] financial backing, which Xbox absolutely does with Microsoft, right?

[00:39:19] Yeah, they're hurting.

[00:39:20] I would say that AA and indie publishers are also really hurting.

[00:39:24] I know that we're talking the AAA space for this episode, but it is just so increasingly risky to publish games, right?

[00:39:33] And it's harder and harder to know what a safe bet even looks like.

[00:39:38] Yeah, I think Sab is right in saying like they say a lot of things that I think are correct.

[00:39:46] But I think saying that the bubble has burst is maybe not the right way to describe it.

[00:39:53] I think there's shifts happening.

[00:39:56] We see that with Microsoft.

[00:39:57] Jake, you brought up this point.

[00:39:59] They're definitely taking a different approach.

[00:40:01] A hundred percent, I think.

[00:40:03] And it's going to be interesting to see how gamers react to that.

[00:40:06] They're doing more scale.

[00:40:08] They're doing higher volume of projects that are scaled down, that are shorter, that cost a little bit less, that are not these like massive.

[00:40:22] And they say it in the article, right?

[00:40:25] Sab says.

[00:40:29] I have it here.

[00:40:33] And I quote.

[00:40:36] So this is the quote I'll read and we can dive into this.

[00:40:39] It feels like the top end of the video game industry is currently faced with two paths to choose from.

[00:40:44] The first is the status quo.

[00:40:46] It can continue to engorge on bigger budgets with impossibly open yet incredibly empty worlds filled with 80 plus hours of content that has about 10 hours of meaning to its players.

[00:40:59] Or hopelessly pursue the live service train which left the station over five years ago with late passengers wondering why the money isn't rolling anymore.

[00:41:13] And then they say basically like, okay, so maybe studios can remember that we used to play video games because they were fun, not because of their bigger than last year maps carpeted by denser higher resolution grass that you walk across to finish another piece of side content that pushes you one digit closer to 100% completion.

[00:41:30] I just don't know if that's like actually a true statement.

[00:41:33] You know what I mean?

[00:41:34] I think it's partially true, but it comes off as like that.

[00:41:38] This is the only thing happening in AAA and I just don't know if that's true.

[00:41:42] I think my follow up question to that is who who is or what are the demographics playing AAA games?

[00:41:52] And I think AAA games tend to have really broad appeal and they tend to have a ton of content because they're kind of expected to be the one game that somebody's playing at a time.

[00:42:03] Right?

[00:42:04] They're not, you know, AAA studio executives are not like, hey, you know what, Jake from the Priority Bonus podcast, this guy's playing seven games at once at any given time.

[00:42:12] Let's throw a 100 hour, you know, open world adventure in his lap.

[00:42:15] They're not looking at me.

[00:42:17] Absolutely not.

[00:42:18] They're looking at people who are playing just a few games a year.

[00:42:21] People who might take on one big narrative adventure, but also be dumping a ton of money into FIFA.

[00:42:26] Right?

[00:42:29] So I don't know.

[00:42:30] I still think that there is a demographic that is hungry for a giant open world game.

[00:42:37] And those games are super expensive to make.

[00:42:40] Right?

[00:42:40] However, I agree with what Sav is saying here in that like, but should every AAA studio be pursuing that?

[00:42:52] No, they shouldn't be.

[00:42:53] And I agree that it really does feel like that AAA studios are either pursuing the bigger, better open world game or some sort of live service trend.

[00:43:01] And it's kind of interesting to see that like PlayStation right now has gone pretty hard with live service.

[00:43:07] They have a bunch of live service games in development right now.

[00:43:12] Nintendo does what Nintendo does, but Nintendo also released Tears of the Kingdom not that long ago.

[00:43:16] Right?

[00:43:17] But again, this is a company that can afford to spend as much time as they did polishing that game.

[00:43:23] So it wasn't just like a total crap show on the Switch.

[00:43:28] By the way, I found a Saab on Twitter and it is, it's him.

[00:43:33] So Saab, thanks for your article.

[00:43:35] Yes.

[00:43:35] And this is not a personal attack.

[00:43:37] We're just trying to use your thoughts too.

[00:43:38] Yes.

[00:43:39] A hundred percent.

[00:43:39] And this is also his IGN debut.

[00:43:42] Oh.

[00:43:43] Well then congrats.

[00:43:44] First article.

[00:43:44] He was first article commissioner.

[00:43:46] I'm sorry.

[00:43:47] I interrupted you.

[00:43:47] No, you're fine.

[00:43:49] I just, I think that that demographic still exists.

[00:43:52] I think you and I, you know, mid to elder millennial age gamers, that's really not so much the demographic for, we're not really that demographic anymore.

[00:44:04] But I do think that maybe AAA as an industry, industry wide across multiple companies does kind of self cannibalize by pitting live service and AAA games as being their two main offerings.

[00:44:20] Because they're both super time intensive games and it is crazy difficult to manage your time and play both a live service game and a massive open world 80 hour plus game.

[00:44:32] That's just a time sink.

[00:44:33] So maybe that's probably the problems that they're creating competition within themselves.

[00:44:41] Yeah, I think you're right.

[00:44:43] He, so he says, so he says many projects akin to Concord, he talks about Concord could be the medium sized successes they deserve to be.

[00:44:51] If not for the financial corners, these publishers have found themselves backed into gamers are beginning to waste.

[00:44:58] Gamers are beginning to wane interest in these monolithic projects.

[00:45:05] Yeah.

[00:45:08] I don't know because I brought up black myth Wukong.

[00:45:12] I mean, clearly there's not a lack of interest there.

[00:45:19] Concord was that, was that because the budget was too big?

[00:45:25] Now maybe he's saying like, okay, you put it out as like an early access medium sized thing.

[00:45:30] And then maybe you find your footing by developing it like an early access or something like that, which may be right.

[00:45:37] Maybe spending 200 million on it was definitely a dump.

[00:45:41] But I think it's just because it was not a great game in a super crowded space because you look at other games and they are finding success.

[00:45:49] Still are there struggles with live service and like, and there's budget issues and like those things like, yeah, a hundred percent there are.

[00:45:57] But we do still continue to see games be successful.

[00:46:02] I think ultimately the underlying conversation is how do these, how do these companies continue to make games without it costing too much money?

[00:46:19] And he does, what he does do is he proposes a solution to that, which is like making smaller, you know, maybe more creative, maybe more curated titles.

[00:46:28] But I don't know that that's a guarantee of financial success with Xbox being a great guinea pig for what they're doing with their, with their studios.

[00:46:37] So that's all I'm saying.

[00:46:38] Like he, he kind of comes off in the article as, as, as if he's saying like, this is, this is the solution, right?

[00:46:45] Like, let's just get back to the heyday of having creativity and get rid of these big open world games.

[00:46:51] But the problem is like, you still have games like Elden Ring, which is a massive open world that also was massively successful.

[00:46:59] And so at the end of the day, it just comes down to, can you make a really good game that doesn't break your wallet?

[00:47:10] Regardless if it's a live service game.

[00:47:12] Now, live service is a little bit different because we know, we know that for sure, that even if you make a really good live service game, people are not going to give up their fortnights.

[00:47:25] It's a platform now.

[00:47:26] It's a platform.

[00:47:27] It's not even a game.

[00:47:28] It's not even a game.

[00:47:29] It's, it's a thing that people, it's like a hobby.

[00:47:32] It's fortnight.

[00:47:33] It's a hobby, right?

[00:47:36] So with that, that's the problem with the live service pursual.

[00:47:40] But in turn, but, but on the other side, I think you can still absolutely make a game that's going to run away, but you just have to make a good game that sparks joy and does something maybe a little bit different that like people find exciting.

[00:47:54] And a lot of people find exciting and that's not easy to do.

[00:47:57] Um, so.

[00:48:25] Yeah.

[00:48:26] This is a lot like overwatch, but Hey, you probably will like this more than overwatch.

[00:48:30] So please buy our game.

[00:48:32] Right.

[00:48:32] Right.

[00:48:32] And then all the people who've been playing overwatch for years that have accumulated these massive digital cosmetic libraries aren't going to really jump ship.

[00:48:41] Like it is super hard to get them to break away.

[00:48:44] Now I think a really cynical way of looking at this is, well, you got to wait till overwatch implodes or fortnight implodes when, when those moments hit and they will hit at some point when fortnight implodes, right?

[00:49:00] When overwatch two implodes, do you have something that you can shoot into the space that has just freed up quickly?

[00:49:09] Well, given the cadence that we're seeing with the development of AAA games, no, because if it's taken you five years, you're already five years behind the market trends that you initially based your game off of when you were designing it.

[00:49:20] And so I do agree with the article and I agree with sob and that like, you need shorter turnaround times because when some of these moments and market share space freeze up, you got to be ready to hop in there.

[00:49:36] Right.

[00:49:37] And this is kind of the crapshoot of business and the gamble that it is.

[00:49:41] It's like, you don't know when that's going to happen or are you well-versed in reading the tea leaves?

[00:49:46] Right.

[00:49:47] Or does it even make sense?

[00:49:48] Like if you were waiting for fortnight to implode, I don't know when it first came out while you're waiting, you're still waiting.

[00:49:55] And it's been like eight years and you can't wait around that long.

[00:49:58] Right.

[00:49:59] So it's, it's like, it's really easy for me to be like, yeah, just wait for them to implode.

[00:50:05] It'll happen.

[00:50:05] Certainly somebody is going to screw up somewhere and make a bad decision and all the players will leave.

[00:50:09] Yeah.

[00:50:10] I'm fairly confident that something like that is going to happen, but.

[00:50:14] But you can't really predict when that's going to happen.

[00:50:17] And even so, because these games have been around for so freaking long, dude, I'm telling

[00:50:23] you, man, I think that digital cosmetic library is extremely difficult for people to give up.

[00:50:29] And I'm starting to believe that that's why these people who are peddling NFTs two years ago were peddling NFTs because they're trying to figure out a way to break these games and say, well, what if you could take your digital cosmetic library to a brand new game that I happen to be making right now?

[00:50:49] And so you don't feel like you're losing your entire library, right?

[00:50:52] Too bad it was NFTs and all that garbage.

[00:50:55] Right.

[00:50:55] But like, it starts to kind of make sense of like why these different initiatives have been pushed because they're trying to come up with some sort of way technologically to break you off of these games that you are deeply entrenched in.

[00:51:08] I mean, but that so that I compare that to trying.

[00:51:12] It's like trying to come up with us with it's it's like trying to come out with a new sport.

[00:51:19] Like imagine like this is the way I think these executives think they're not they're thinking about it.

[00:51:24] They're still thinking about it like it's just let's make a bigger, better, newer video game and then they're going to get sick.

[00:51:31] They're going to come to my new video game.

[00:51:32] No, it's you're trying to make a new sport.

[00:51:36] All these kids are playing baseball and you're trying to come out with.

[00:51:42] I don't know.

[00:51:44] Baseball, but there are five bases.

[00:51:46] Flump ball, right?

[00:51:48] A new a brand new sport that nobody's ever heard of.

[00:51:51] You imagine how incredibly hard it would be to unseat or take market share to create a new sport.

[00:51:59] Yeah, that just like doesn't happen.

[00:52:01] Right.

[00:52:02] And I think that's basically where we're at with the those kind of top five monster games in the industry.

[00:52:09] They're baseball.

[00:52:11] You can't you can't make a new baseball.

[00:52:13] You can't make a new football.

[00:52:14] You can't make a new soccer.

[00:52:16] It's literally impossible.

[00:52:18] So I'm going to answer.

[00:52:20] I'm going to ask this question and then I'm going to answer it and then I'm going to listen to your answer.

[00:52:23] Sorry, because this is the thought that I have.

[00:52:25] I love this analogy that you have here going on with sports.

[00:52:27] What does it take to really break the status quo then?

[00:52:33] Right.

[00:52:33] Like what kind of disruption does there have to be to actually shake things up?

[00:52:38] And to be totally frank, I know we're kind of Xbox shills on the show.

[00:52:42] At least initially we were kind of less now.

[00:52:45] But like.

[00:52:46] Dude, it's something like Game Pass.

[00:52:48] And I think Xbox has finally figured out that, you know, a lot of people aren't going to subscribe to Game Pass if they're only playing one or two games a year.

[00:52:58] Right.

[00:52:59] But if you can have a bunch of midsize games come out, let's say one a quarter, then it makes way more sense for people to subscribe to your service instead of buying those four games individually at full price and making them games that are actually manageable.

[00:53:15] Right.

[00:53:15] So I do think something like a subscription service can disrupt the industry and how people look at like long term investment in games as opposed to just investing all their money in Fortnite bucks or whatever it is.

[00:53:28] Right.

[00:53:29] So because I'm with you, if we're trying to invent a brand new sport in this industry, in this climate, like what does it actually take?

[00:53:38] Like what kind of invention or new service or product does it actually take to create any sort of sizable disruption?

[00:53:46] Because I agree with you.

[00:53:48] It's not let's make let's make let me think.

[00:53:53] Let's make Elden Ring.

[00:53:54] But it's sci fi instead of fantasy.

[00:53:59] Then the gamers are going to come to us and leave from software in the dust.

[00:54:03] Right.

[00:54:03] That's not that's not how it goes.

[00:54:07] That would be pretty cool.

[00:54:08] But from soft would have to do it.

[00:54:10] It'll be armored core seven.

[00:54:13] So he also brings up he says.

[00:54:18] 2024 shows a revitalized hunger for smaller, more independent spirit arcade machine throwback UFO 50.

[00:54:24] The Metroidvania esque animal.

[00:54:25] Well, poker, roguelite, Bellatro and tech space pixel art adventure.

[00:54:29] Crimson diamond are just some of the games you'll see appearing again and again on these lists.

[00:54:34] They share a commonality, a smaller room, a find experience that recalls earlier eras of gaming where blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

[00:54:40] Yeah.

[00:54:41] Like the problem is, is that I love those types of games, but the vast, vast, vast, vast, vast majority of gamers have never heard of those games and would never play them.

[00:54:51] Anyways, no matter how many marketing dollars you put the behind them, because the bottom line is, is that the core gamer plays three games a year.

[00:54:58] Call of duty.

[00:55:01] Madden.

[00:55:03] FIFA.

[00:55:05] And that's it.

[00:55:06] And they buy the same three games a year.

[00:55:09] And so it's just a completely different audience.

[00:55:13] And so you can't tell the AAA games industry, go do this.

[00:55:17] Right.

[00:55:18] Be more like the indie scene, because the bottom line is that a huge part of the audience, they don't want that.

[00:55:27] They want like big, flashy, showy, graphic thing that's super cool.

[00:55:34] A once in a lifetime flash in the pan thing like Elden Ring, which you could never predict.

[00:55:39] It's like lightning in a bottle.

[00:55:41] Right.

[00:55:41] Like same thing with, with Boulder's Gate three lightning in a bottle.

[00:55:46] The success that that had.

[00:55:47] Right.

[00:55:49] Right.

[00:55:49] Which, which brings me around to what we said we were going to talk about.

[00:55:53] I want to talk about Wolfenstein two and beyond galaxy land as examples of this.

[00:56:00] Right.

[00:56:00] I think what sits in the middle are, I think what he's actually referring to are games more like Wolfenstein two.

[00:56:08] And not beyond galaxy.

[00:56:11] Beyond galaxy land is, is more of an indie title.

[00:56:13] So I think it sits in its own corner.

[00:56:15] Right.

[00:56:15] It can live, it can live in its own corner and like have success.

[00:56:20] Right.

[00:56:20] Cause if you're, if you're a small studio with a small team, you know, small amount of team, that's like a different space in the triple A space.

[00:56:29] I think what he's actually talking about.

[00:56:32] And the argument is we want to continue to have games like Wolfenstein two.

[00:56:36] And those games are becoming fewer and far between.

[00:56:40] But because you've already brought it up, Jake, because of something like game pass, which a lot of people don't like because it's a subscription.

[00:56:50] But I think to your exact point, it is game pass.

[00:56:54] That's going to allow if it's successful.

[00:56:58] That's game pass.

[00:56:59] That's going to allow games like Wolfenstein two, to, to exist and to, and to survive.

[00:57:05] And so basically what ends up happening in that situation and Microsoft's already shown what the strategy is.

[00:57:12] They bought the biggest game ever call of duty.

[00:57:15] You get people to get game pass, to play cod.

[00:57:19] And then cod essentially pays for all these other cool kind of smaller, more curated triple A experiences that, that all of us like kind of core gamers actually want.

[00:57:30] And so I think you're right.

[00:57:31] I mean, I mean, it's funny.

[00:57:34] This actually functions quite a lot like collegiate sports where, so when I was attending Rutgers University as a graduate student, my dissertation advisor was, he's an amazing basketball player.

[00:57:46] The dude is massive.

[00:57:47] He's really tall.

[00:57:49] But so he has this, had this big interest in basketball and in Rutgers sports.

[00:57:54] And I remember talking with him because this is when Rutgers was first joining the Big Ten.

[00:58:00] And I was talking to him about Rutgers football because the team that I love, UW, and we do not need to talk about their season this year.

[00:58:07] But at the time they were playing super well, right?

[00:58:09] And they were playing and we had decided to go to a game.

[00:58:13] So it was like UW at Rutgers.

[00:58:14] This was a preseason and pre-conference game.

[00:58:16] And I was talking to him about this and I was like, man, it blows my mind.

[00:58:20] Look at all these people here for the Rutgers game.

[00:58:22] And he was involved in athletics and academics.

[00:58:26] And he was like, Jacob, you know what's interesting though is that Rutgers football, and especially now because we're in the Big Ten,

[00:58:33] it makes so much money that it pays for nearly every single other sport that Rutgers has as a university, right?

[00:58:44] Which to me was like, it makes that much money that it's paying for everything else.

[00:58:49] He's like, it is making that much money that it's paying for everything else.

[00:58:52] And so we're kind of at this weird thing I feel like with Game Pass because Game Pass I feel like historically

[00:59:00] has been an amazing subscription service for AA and indie games.

[00:59:05] Whoever does acquisitions for Game Pass has really had their finger on the pulse of what games to add on there.

[00:59:12] The biggest problem historically with Game Pass has been first party Xbox titles.

[00:59:17] They have been really sparse and those are supposed to be the big draws into the subscription service.

[00:59:22] And I think you're totally right by buying Call of Duty, Activism Blizzard, and putting it on Game Pass.

[00:59:29] I mean, they're hoping for a really good attachment rate and they're really hoping for, I would say,

[00:59:35] people who are playing Call of Duty to be like, oh look, there's this other shooter on there.

[00:59:40] Maybe I should give it a try, right?

[00:59:42] Like, oh, I've got time. It's a shorter shooter game. Maybe I'll give it a try.

[00:59:46] But yeah, I think you're right.

[00:59:47] They want those big heavy titles to pay for the entire service.

[00:59:51] And I do believe that the folks over at ID, Xbox, and Game Pass,

[00:59:56] they really do want to put amazing, creative, interesting games on there, right?

[01:00:01] But I think you're right that kind of making the comparison of how indie games operate with their funding

[01:00:07] in the video games industry versus AAA is not a really good comparison

[01:00:14] because they do operate quite differently, you know?

[01:00:21] Yeah. Sorry. Real quick though.

[01:00:24] But yeah, a game like Wolfenstein 2, I would love a return to more games of that size.

[01:00:30] I'm loving the heck out of this game.

[01:00:32] It is so, so much fun.

[01:00:35] Super well designed, super snappy, and it looks incredible.

[01:00:39] And this is a game that's seven years old at this point, right?

[01:00:43] Almost eight years old.

[01:00:45] And it just looks and plays phenomenally well.

[01:00:49] But yeah.

[01:00:50] I actually kind of, I want to go replay it like right after this.

[01:00:54] But like, yeah, I don't know.

[01:00:57] How do you get people interested?

[01:00:59] Let's talk about Wolfenstein 2 for a second and be on Galaxyland

[01:01:03] because we said we would and then we didn't.

[01:01:05] And it's like been an hour.

[01:01:06] We waxed philosophical.

[01:01:07] Yeah.

[01:01:07] Yeah, and we've been an hour.

[01:01:08] We're already like way over.

[01:01:10] So let's use these last few minutes to talk about Wolfenstein 2,

[01:01:13] if you guys don't know, by Machine Games,

[01:01:16] which is making another small-ish AAA game called Indiana Jones

[01:01:22] that comes out in December.

[01:01:23] This is a perfect example of the type of game I think we all kind of pine for, right?

[01:01:28] Yeah.

[01:01:29] That we want more of.

[01:01:31] This game like didn't do really well financially,

[01:01:34] but it's great, man.

[01:01:37] It is just really good.

[01:01:38] You're just killing Nazis.

[01:01:40] They just nail the vibes of this like fictional post-World War II universe

[01:01:49] with like a, you know, occupied United States with Nazis

[01:01:54] and you're kind of blowing them up and crazy stuff.

[01:01:57] Crazy stuff happens in this game.

[01:01:59] Like wild, wild stuff.

[01:02:02] I mean, this game is, as much as it is like alternate history,

[01:02:07] it is very science fiction.

[01:02:11] No, it is very science fiction.

[01:02:13] And it does not pull any punches about Nazis.

[01:02:17] I'll tell you that much.

[01:02:19] Yeah.

[01:02:19] It's got wonderful things to say.

[01:02:22] It is not wax philosophical about Nazis.

[01:02:25] I'll say that much.

[01:02:28] But yeah, I mean, this is.

[01:02:31] It's like a basic like single-player shooter campaign

[01:02:36] with a huge production value.

[01:02:39] Yeah.

[01:02:40] Which you put that in front of an executive.

[01:02:44] Nowadays, they're going to be like,

[01:02:47] like, no, like, can this be a franchise?

[01:02:50] Is there multiplayer?

[01:02:52] Like, how do we integrate microtransactions to this?

[01:02:55] Does this have the potential to make, you know, 10X the budget?

[01:03:00] Let's say as 150.

[01:03:01] Let's say as a quote unquote small budget of 150 million.

[01:03:06] Can you make it for that?

[01:03:07] And can you finish it?

[01:03:09] Microsoft saying yes to that.

[01:03:11] They're like, yeah, all day.

[01:03:12] Like, let's keep the budget down to, you know, 100 million, 150 million.

[01:03:16] We'll put it on Game Pass.

[01:03:17] We'll highlight it.

[01:03:18] They're for now saying yes to that, which fingers crossed.

[01:03:21] I personally really hope.

[01:03:23] I think Jake and I are on the same boat here.

[01:03:24] I hope Game Pass succeeds.

[01:03:26] I know people don't like not owning their games.

[01:03:29] But I think the reality is to credit to the author of this article we've been talking about.

[01:03:35] I'm just going to say this again.

[01:03:37] I think the reality is if Game Pass fails, I do think these types of games like probably go away for the most part.

[01:03:45] And then we end up with the situation that we have in the movie industry, which is kind of similar, right?

[01:03:51] Where you basically have art house films like A24 and others.

[01:03:56] And then you have massive budget films.

[01:03:59] Right.

[01:04:00] And you basically don't have like those 90s era mid-budget, mid to small kind of Hollywood films, right?

[01:04:07] That come out.

[01:04:08] And that's kind of what the world that we end up in.

[01:04:11] And we're – I don't think we're there yet because there's these things still going on like we've talked about.

[01:04:15] That would be my argument.

[01:04:16] And that's why I say like the bubble hasn't burst because there's been things that are kind of shifting the industry.

[01:04:22] But yeah, Wolfenstein 2, man, it's the one that we – it's the type of thing that I think we want.

[01:04:28] And then – and of course, Beyond Galaxyland, that's on the indie side.

[01:04:33] That's doing like really interesting things with pixel art and turn-based combat and like a science fiction story that you would love to see like a AAA studio do.

[01:04:46] But it just seems like that's going to be really tough, right?

[01:04:50] I mean they're making another Mass Effect, but who knows when we see that probably in 2030.

[01:04:55] Yeah.

[01:04:55] Just a few things about Beyond Galaxyland, which I finished recently.

[01:04:58] Like it is very much like Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy style of humor and kind of storytelling as well too.

[01:05:07] It's tongue-in-cheek.

[01:05:07] It's very silly.

[01:05:08] It's funny.

[01:05:09] It's sci-fi.

[01:05:11] But yeah, with a game like Beyond Galaxyland, I think what something like that really represents is yes, it is highly creative.

[01:05:19] It's relatively fine-tuned.

[01:05:21] It's for a specific audience.

[01:05:23] And I mean this in the most loving and endearing way possible.

[01:05:27] But like indie games just operate in a different sphere than the AAA studios do.

[01:05:34] And indie games are the cockroaches of the games industry.

[01:05:39] You can try your best to snuff them out and to kill them.

[01:05:42] But indie games, because in indie coming from the word independent, because they do not follow traditional funding models always, right?

[01:05:51] You can have somebody who is solo devving a game forever.

[01:05:55] I mean we have to bring it up.

[01:05:58] Stardew Valley, dude.

[01:05:59] I mean Concerned Ape was making Stardew Valley for five years part-time thanks to his girlfriend at the time.

[01:06:05] You know, he was working full-time and could support him in what he wanted to do.

[01:06:09] Like you will always have indie devs that are coming from non-traditional funding scenarios.

[01:06:16] You know, their significant other, for example, instead of like a 505 publishing, right?

[01:06:21] 505 games.

[01:06:23] And so they'll always be able to create games.

[01:06:25] And indie games, thanks to the internet, they can have a massive reach and they can go viral.

[01:06:30] You can have your wonderful Bellatro stories, you know, because that's how indies kind of go.

[01:06:38] But also the scary thing about indies is that for as much as you have something like Bellatro that just changes forever the lives of the people who made that game.

[01:06:49] Like Vampire Survivors 2, right?

[01:06:51] They were just these massive successes and those devs are just essentially set for life.

[01:06:56] They wouldn't even have to charge, like Concerned Ape doesn't have to charge more than 10 cents for any future endeavors because Stardew Valley has been successful for him, right?

[01:07:06] But AAA just does not function that way, right?

[01:07:12] AAA is a huge investment and that investment is not just financial.

[01:07:18] It is also labor investment.

[01:07:20] It is knowledge investment.

[01:07:22] And when a game tanks or goes south, like we can even bring up Concord for this, you lose way more than just time and money.

[01:07:33] But you can also lose a lot of industry knowledge.

[01:07:36] You can lose a whole lot of talent that was developed over that time.

[01:07:42] And you just hope that the talent kind of feeds back into the industry.

[01:07:45] Whereas with like indie games, and this happens way more than we ever talk about because we love talking about indie successes and not indie failures.

[01:07:54] But like when an indie game fails, that person just kind of goes back to whatever their full-time job was, right?

[01:08:00] Or maybe they were already working 40 hours a week and then they were doing game dev 30 hours a week in their spare time.

[01:08:07] And they gave it a try and then they just kind of sit there, hopefully not in financial ruin, kind of having to deal with the aftermath.

[01:08:15] But it's one person, right?

[01:08:17] Or it's a small team of people rather than like, okay, thousands of people just got screwed.

[01:08:22] I think this article even says, right?

[01:08:24] Like 23,000 people have been laid off in this year.

[01:08:28] And that's AAA.

[01:08:33] Well, Jake, we've waxed long talking about this article, this great article.

[01:08:42] I think we've done a pretty good analysis, but we've gone long.

[01:08:48] Yes.

[01:08:49] What else do we, anything else that you'd like to say about the AAA games bubble bursting?

[01:08:55] I think I started saying that I agreed with the article and I think I'm ending relatively mixed.

[01:08:59] I just, I just, I just don't think anymore.

[01:09:04] And this has only been over the course of an hour that there is one single AAA bubble.

[01:09:10] I think, um, I think maybe if we're looking at like third party AAA studios, maybe that bubble has burst.

[01:09:17] Uh, for Xbox, they get enough money that they can just kind of keep the bubble in check.

[01:09:22] Um, Nintendo just operates on a different planet when it comes to a bunch of this stuff.

[01:09:27] Nintendo doesn't care if Pikmin 4 only sells like 3 million copies.

[01:09:31] They really do not care, you know?

[01:09:33] Um, which is great for that franchise, right?

[01:09:36] And great for the fans who ended up loving and playing Pikmin 4, but they're going to be fine.

[01:09:42] You know?

[01:09:43] Um, I think, um, I just wonder if I were to, you know, if there were like a follow-up to this article is

[01:09:51] where exactly are the pain points, where exactly are the bubbles bursting in AAA, right?

[01:09:57] Um, and why?

[01:09:59] Why did those ones burst and other ones not?

[01:10:06] TLDR, Fortnite ruined video games.

[01:10:08] And with that, ladies and gentlemen, uh,

[01:10:12] and with that, ladies and gentlemen, uh,

[01:10:14] this has been another episode of the Pre-Eyed Runners Podcast.

[01:10:16] If you want to continue the conversation, we are going to continue talking about this already long, uh,

[01:10:23] topic, this long episode on our extended edition, which is available to our Patreon subscribers,

[01:10:30] which you can sign up for if you want on patreon.com slash pre-ordercast.

[01:10:34] You can sign up at one of the tiers that gives you access to extended editions,

[01:10:38] which there are multiple, um, but also gives you access to other goodies like special topic episodes,

[01:10:43] Jake's indie impressions, early access to our regular shows,

[01:10:48] access to producer discord, all sorts of fun stuff.

[01:10:52] Uh, you can also find us on Twitter slash X at pre-ordercast.

[01:10:57] Uh, and yeah, and if you don't want to do any of that, that's totally fine.

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