Where Do They Go From Here? - Sony

They say it's lonely at the top, and Sony's PlayStation brand would certainly know. From the PS1 really kicking off the 3D and CD rom era of video games (sorry, 3DO) in 1995 all the way to today, the PlayStation has been at the top or competing for dominance among the big 3. Other than an infamous hiccup with the PS3 from 2006-2009 of course. That makes the PlayStation the most remarkably consistent console brand we've ever seen compared to the roller coaster that has been Nintendo and the lack of direction that has been the Xbox over the past 15 years (RIP Sega, but also welcome back Sega). 

That's not to say that the strategy has been the same all this time. The PS1 and PS2 mostly dominated by having the right hardware media player and not committing the unforced errors of Sega and Nintendo. CD roms and later DVDs were the dominant mediums of their time, and Sony had a lock on both which made its consoles the natural hub for the big players like Komani, Capcom, Square, Activision, Rockstar, and EA. Everyone else got the leftovers. Sony didn't develop a whole lot of games. This strategy of not screwing up came to a screeching halt when the PS3 dropped at $599 on the eve of a global recession, and Blu-Rays got outpaced by the growth of the internet. 

From then on the PS3 clawed its way back by developing major AAA games in house that pushed the video game industry forward giving it the right momentum going into the PS4 era, where another series of unforced errors by rivals caused it to blow past the competition. Sony's future was seemingly secure as the PS4 had all the must have games of that generation while the Wii U burned through Nintendo's cash reserves and the Xbox One floundered. How could they mess this up?

Well, in a lot of ways they haven't. But times have gotten weird for Sony. Weirder than the PS3 era where you could point to mistakes they had made. First with a Fall 2020 release most consumers couldn't even find a PS5 for two whole years without getting extremely lucky or paying a markup. And why would they even need to? All of the major releases like God of War and Horizon were simultaneously released on the PS4. This brief time saw Nintendo Switches fly off the shelves and even a limping Xbox saw some signs of life. Fans began to complain that the release schedule of the PS5 was not up to par with previous generations.

This was the most difficult of the 3 for me to write about because it begs the question: is Sony in a bad place? And by a lot of traditional metrics, the answer is an emphatic no. PS5's production got under control and started selling out left and right in 2022 and haven't looked back since. As of 2024 the PS5 is up 7% in sales on the PS4 at the same time in its life cycle (the Xbox Series is down 18% despite a functional 2 year lead, consumers would literally rather keep a PS4 than convert). A 2024 release schedule of exclusives that included Helldivers 2, Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth, Stellar Blade, and Astro Bot swept away anything Nintendo or Microsoft was putting out. 

On the other hand, the answer feels like a yes to me. Sales are up sure, but almost none of those games were produced by Sony. And you can't talk about 2024 without mentioning Sony's mega flop live service title Concord, which didn't even make it a week before being shut down. Key exclusives that Sony nailed down like Final Fantasy 16 and 7 Remake have disappointed Square in the sales department. The Bungie acquisition looks like a bust. 2025 appears to only feature two PS5 exclusive titles (potential surprises notwithstanding): Ghost of Yotei and Death Stranding 2. The vibes, so to speak, are bad. 

So where does Sony go from here? It will be easy to argue that all they have to do is take the free gift that Microsoft has given them in delayed releases of Indiana Jones, Doom the Dark Ages, and Avowed (plus the rumored release of Starfield and old Gears/Halo/Forza titles). Suddenly 2025 doesn't look so bad since Sony will probably have another game in there too. But this gift is a trojan horse: while the Xbox division replenishes their coffers off the console ecosystem Sony built, they are also building an audience for their own games that after 15 years they've finally figured out how to make. Games whose sequels they can easily make console exclusive if and when Microsoft decides to compete against the PS6 and beyond. 

Instead I would posit that Sony takes a leaf from Nintendo and Sega's books and recognize the value of having a release schedule made up of different types of games. Every title you drop need not be a gigantic, open world AAA story based game. We are seeing diminishing returns from technological advancements in graphics and game size: might it be time to dial things back? You can still have your God of Wars to get consumers in the door, but this needs to be supplemented with AA and single A releases. Much like Sega and Nintendo, Sony absolutely has the back catalogue of IPs to get this done. Just look at the success of Astro Bot. 

This will mean Sony has to do something that is very difficult for a large fortune 100 company: which is to sacrifice short term profits for long term gains. It will cost money to develop and market the next AA Sly Cooper game so that people buy it. It would be much cheaper to remaster another PS4 game and resell it for full price, or rely on Xbox to give you freebies. But if Sony wants to maintain a healthy brand and potentially prevent Nintendo from more directly competing with them (or some other player like Apple) then they need to start giving consumers a reason to get a PlayStation that isn't just "it's the only game in town." A monopoly begs for competition to steal a slice: just ask Nintendo in the 80s.

These AA and A titles could also boost the PS+ service which appears to only exist to have an answer to Gamepass. It’s a good deal for people new to the PlayStation ecosystem but it doesn’t offer much to veterans. I understand not putting Spider-Man 2 in out of the gate, but using possible AA titles as loss leaders to bring in more subscribers seems like a win-win to me. There’s still room for a live service game here as well, but the last 2-3 years should’ve proven that you can’t bank on this as your number one strategy. As popular as Helldivers 2 was, the engagement fades eventually.

Some of this pressure will inevitably have to come from the outside world: right now Sony has no reason to change. Microsoft has waived the white flag. Make no mistake about it, the Switch IS competing with the PS5, but over an entire  console generation there’s room for both in most people’s living rooms. It may take flagging PS6 sales or Nintendo stepping up the competition to get movement here. But if Sony wants to shake off the malaise and continue to dominate the competition, they need to diversify their output. That’s not wish casting on my part; just ask Nintendo how that’s working for them. There’s no time like the present for Sony to take a lesson from Astro Bot (and Hifi Rush) and start green lighting some future classics.